This week's statistical exercise was to calculate the chance that Obama will win more than 50% of the popular vote on November 4th as a function of economic growth (or lack thereof) and the fact that the Republicans have been in office for two terms. The result: 94% chance he wins!
You can probably think of a few relevant variables that have been left out. Like racism. But unfortunately we can't test that because it's never happened before. There are some 'studies' that claim to show black candidates face a 10-15% handicap, but none of these are generalizeable to a national election.
So I remain cautiously optimistic.
3 comments:
it worked!
or, well, i suppose that remains to be seen. but i'm glad you were constructive after we parted ways early sunday a.m.
Have you factored in the moose hunting vote? I'm sure that's a whole new demographic which, until now, psephologists have ignored.
It's all very alarming.
Still, good to see McCain in action, "rescuing" the $700bn rescue plan. God knows what a disaster it would have been if he hadn't showed up.
Although maybe he should have sent the fragrant Sarah to tell 'em wot's wot?
Can you get me one of those outfits. But in black...
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